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Back in 2018, it took just eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost of 2018

All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent of him to remember the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.