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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."