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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.